BP Energy Outlook: Global energy demand to grow 30% to 2035
Global energy demand will increase by around 30% to 2035 with an average growth of 1.3% per year, according to the 2017 edition of BP’s Energy Outlook. The growth is said to be driven by increasing prosperity in developing countries, partially offset by rapid gains in energy efficiency.
“The global energy landscape is changing,” said Bob Dudley, BP group chief executive. “Traditional centers of demand are being overtaken by fast-growing emerging markets. The energy mix is shifting, driven by technological improvements and environmental concerns. More than ever, our industry needs to adapt to meet those changing energy needs.” The outlook projects that oil, gas, and coal will remain the main source of energy powering the world economy, accounting for more than 75% of total energy supply in 2035, compared with 86% in 2015.
Products source oil demand growth
Oil demand is thought to grow at an average rate of 0.7% a year until 2035. The transport sector continues to consume most of the world’s oil with its share of global demand remaining close to 60% in 2035. Non-combusted use of oil, particularly in petrochemicals, takes over as the main source of growth for oil demand by the early 2030’s. “The impact of electric cars, together with other aspects of the mobility revolution, such as self-driving cars, car sharing, and ride pooling, is one of the key uncertainties surrounding the long-term outlook for oil” said Spencer Dale, BP’s group chief economist.
Gas overtakes coal
Gas grows more quickly than either oil or coal over the outlook, with the demand growing 1.6% a year. Its share of primary energy overtakes coal to be the second-largest fuel source by 2035. The main growth comes from China, Middle East, and the US. In China, growth in gas consumption outstrips domestic production, so that by 2035 imported gas comprises nearly 40% of total consumption, up from 30% in 2015. The outlook expects LNG supplies to grow rapidly to account for more than half of traded gas by 2035.
China pushes renewable growth
Coal consumption is projected to peak in the mid-2020s, largely driven by China’s move towards cleaner, lower-carbon fuels.
Renewables are projected to be the fasted growing fuel source, growing at an average of 7.6% a year, quadrupling over the outlook, driven by increasing competitiveness of both solar and wind. China is the largest source of growth for renewables over the next 20 years, adding more renewable power than the EU and US combined.
Carbon emissions growth slows
Carbon emissions are projected to grow at less than a third of the rate seen in the past 20 years, by an average of 0.6% a year vs. 2.1% a year, reflecting gains in energy efficiency and the changing fuel mix. If achieved, it would be the slowest rate of emissions growth for any 20-year period since records began in 1965. However, carbon emissions from energy use in the base case are still projected to grow throughout the period, by about 13%.
Read the full Oil & Gas Journal article on BP’s Global Energy Outlook.